Hurricane Dorian latest spaghetti models: Track shifts for direct Florida hit

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Hurricane Dorian is strengthening in the Atlantic Ocean and is whipping out winds of 105mph, making it a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The intense storm is moving towards Florida’s east coast, where it is expected to make a direct hit later this week. In NOAA’s latest advisory, it warned Dorian is forecast to develop into a major Category 3 hurricane on Friday. The last hurricane to hit the east coast of Florida was Hurricane Katrina in 2005.

The tropical storm is forecast to make landfall in the Sunshine State late this weekend.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said: “Dorian is expected to become a major hurricane on Friday and remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through the weekend.”

In addition, the risk of life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds this weekend continues to increase.

NOAA warned Dorian will most likely intensify into a major Category 3 hurricane on Friday.

Hurricane watches have been issued for northwestern Bahamas, where Dorian is tracking towards ahead of its journey to Florida.

Although NOAA adds it’s too early to determine exactly where Dorian will make landfall, the spaghetti models continues show a more narrow tracking cone.

Regardless of the exact track of Dorian, heavy rains are expected to occur over portions of the Bahamas, Florida, and elsewhere in the southeastern US this weekend and into the middle of next week.

Currently, Hurricane Dorian is located 295 miles (470km) east-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas and 580 miles (930km) east of the northwestern Bahamas.

The latest forecast said: “The high is expected to expand westward, with a blocking ridge becoming established over the western Atlantic during the next several days.

“With the exception of COAMPS-TC and HMON, the other reliable models are in excellent agreement through day 3, with Dorian turning westward south of the ridge and moving near or over the northernmost islands in the Bahamas Sunday and Monday.

“After day 3, steering currents collapse as a break develops in the ridge, and Dorian will likely slow down considerably as it approaches the Florida peninsula.

“There is more spread among the deterministic models and their ensemble members during that time, with disagreement on exactly when and where Dorian will turn northwestward and northward on days 4 and 5.

A west-northwestward to westward motion is forecast to begin by Friday night and continue into the weekend.

On this track, Dorian should move over the Atlantic well east of the southeastern and central Bahamas tonight and on Friday, approach the northwestern Bahamas on Saturday, and move near or over portions of the northwest Bahamas on Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35km) from the centre, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165km).

Swells are likely to begin affecting the east-facing shores of the Bahamas and the southeastern US coast during the next few days.

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