Zoom Call 6.14.22 Panel Discussion Recession or Correction
The Zoom call this week was an opportunity for ActiveRainers to share their experiences in the current market. With interest rates going up and the threat of runaway inflation are the current values in homes a repeat of the debacle of 2008
Debe Maxwell opened up the meeting with the request that it be in an orderly manner.
Eileen Burns from Florida opened up the conversation with her experiences with commercial sales in her area. The feeling that the market is lowering a bit for commercial.
Hannah Williams offered that in her area, builders are having problems with keeping workers. The market in her area has a lot of individual workers doing side jobs for homeowners as it is more profitable to them than working on a construction site.
She also offered that commercial land in her area is seeing a down slide in prices.
She has no indications as to whether there is a bubble in the making and feels that it will be like it was in 2008 when the market crashed within a matter of days with little warning.
Carol Williams offered her perspective as a retiree and feels that the biggest issue affecting our economy is the prices of fuel, which impacts everything as well. She feels that she can get by with her essentials and will put off any major work at home until the economy stabilizes some.
John Meussner offered up details off of a presentation he was preparing.
His chart showed the number of households looking to purchase against actual sales. In 2008, which is shown in mid-chart, the numbers were low on both accounts, which is something we all experienced. Towards the end of his chart, he offers the number of households seeking to purchase as well beyond the closed sales.
Back in 2008, he experienced a surplus on market of spec housing that was largely caused by the lending practices that were runaway at the time and led to the drop in the industry.
We are experiencing that opposite of that cycle and are inventories are still lagging but are coming into the annual spring/summer spurt. First time homebuyers are a large part of the economy but are being left out due to the demand and they have little capital.
His feeling is that there will be a slight decrease in appreciation which should make for more stability.
Rocky Dickerson feels that his market is shifting into his prime marketing. By adding statistics to his video channel, he is seeing more activity for areas that he has focused.
His market is extremely active for statistics and marketing data.
Will Hamm in Denver offered that the sales are still active but the biggest issue is on rentals where there is high demand and rentals are approaching $3,000 per month for small home rentals.
The inventory is so tight that he had one client that viewed 58 homes and put in 12 contracts with a cushion of $75,000 over asking on some contracts. Lease backs are also string for sellers for up to 2-3 months.
Dorie Dillard in Texas sees that there is still a strong sellers’ market but buyers are starting to get more particular about the houses. She believes that many of the buyers are just backing off to allow the market to settle and may come back at end of summer or maybe even next year.
Sellers cannot get away with excessive prices and wait for multiple offers at auction. Buyes are being more particular.
Anna Kutchen in Phoenix has seen the levels of inventory drop by app 10% and prices coming down some with sellers being smarter with their asking prices.
She has seen higher end prices getting more negotiations in to the prices.
Multiple offers are staring to be less common as she also sees buyers backing off on the escalating values.
Ed Silva in Connecticut also offered that inventory levels are creeping up slightly but prices are not coming down very much, except for those sellers that just had overpriced homes to start.
The biggest factor in the CT economy is the labor forces that are sitting back and not seeking jobs. Manufacturing and retail sectors all have want ads as does the restaurant industry, but people have either moved away or are content to stay home and collect.
An example of young people not wanting to work is the shortage of lifeguards for the summer water recreational areas. As many as 40% of the public swimming areas will be with few guards and many will not open just so as to not be at liability.
Dorrie Dillard has seen premiums being offered for summer life guards and still not getting activity.
George Souto sees an increase in first time buyers seeking their first homes, but they have little in funds or marginal credit so they just need to work on saving to be able to buy while they work on their credit.
I’m sure there were others that contributed but I had to leave the call to attend to a personal matter.